Why Did Iran Launch the First Attack This Time Amid the Ceasefire?

Iran has resumed fighting, ending the temporary calm in the Middle East. In the words of the United States, it was a “sudden” attack. It was not in response to any recent strike by US forces; rather, Iran itself reignited the conflict. This reflects a mindset of conducting the war on its own terms, creating new grounds for a fresh escalation of tensions.

US President Donald Trump told Fox News, “We will strike them hard. They will be hit hard.” Tehran was not surprised by this threat. Because they knew they were launching missiles, and that US bombers could return. The United States has already said that, in response to the attack on US forces, it launched retaliatory strikes on several bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Trump, however, had said that they had halted the attacks the previous week at Iran’s request. Tehran did not publicly acknowledge this. Therefore, Iran’s attack immediately after the US strikes stopped is quite significant.

Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German think tank SWP, believes that there has been a major change in Iran’s strategic position. If they consider a preemptive attack necessary, they are no longer willing to hold back.

The attack was carried out immediately after a meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington. According to Azizi, it may have been intended to warn Washington. Soon after, US and Saudi forces launched a joint attack on Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq. The war is now taking on a new dimension. Saudi Arabia, which had remained distant until now, is also becoming deeply involved in the conflict, facing threats from three directions: the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq, and Iran.

Israeli researcher Danny Citrinovich says that Tehran or its allies are unwilling to move away from their core objectives. Iran wants to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis will not stop their attacks until the blockade is lifted.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that protecting sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is a matter of survival for them. Iran will not accept Oman and the United States’ plans for alternative maritime routes. In his view, if an alternative route is established, Iran’s control over the strait will remain only on paper.

From Tehran’s perspective, Washington’s temporary silence was a sign of weakness. According to Citrinovich, Washington now has two paths open: accept some of Iran’s demands, or prepare for a long-term conflict over trade and energy routes.